Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: From Russia with Love; Rates Turn

FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR THE US DOLLAR: NEUTRAL But for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US Dollar’s fundamental moorings appear to be less supportive. The 2s5s10s butterfly has receded to its narrowest spread since October 2021, a sign that the US Treasury yield curve has become less supportive of the US Dollar. According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, the US Dollar has a mixed bias heading into the last week of February. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist