2022

NASDAQ 100 OUTLOOK: U.S. stocks sink at the start of the week amid risk-off mood on elevated geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine The Nasdaq 100 breaches support and plummets 3.75% to 13,319, increasing the likelihood of a retest of the 2022 low Deteriorating investor sentiment on stagflation fears may prevent a meaningful recovery in equities in the near term —Written by Diego Colman, Contributor

Global market sentiment was smashed this past week as Russia’s attack on Ukraine stretched beyond the first week. European markets were left particularly vulnerable. It was the worst week for Germany’s DAX 40 index since March 2020, falling over 10%. This is as the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 index sank 7.6%, the most in two years. On Wall Street things were also grim. Futures tracking the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell 2.45%, 1.30% and 1.33%. The VIX Volatility Index, also known as the market’s preferred ‘fear gauge’, closed at a new weekly high, the most since January 2021. Tensions are making life difficult for the Federal Reserve, amplified by this past week’s non-farm payrolls report. Strong US labor market data, as the nation added more jobs than expected and unemployment declined further, continues to underscore tight conditions. Front-end government bond yields remained elevated as longer-term maturities faded. The 10-year and 2-year yield curve is quickly dropping off a cliff which may hint at rising risks of a recession down the road. Taking a look at currencies, it was the worst week for EUR/USD (-2.97%) since March 2020. EUR/CHF sank 3.89% in the worst performance since the SNB scrapped the Franc’s peg to the Euro in early 2015. The haven-oriented US Dollar and similarly behaving Japanese Yen outperformed. EUR/JPY tumbled 3.64%, the most since May 2011. Gold and crude oil prices are also on the rise. The former gained 4.2%, the most since July 2020. This is as WTI soared 25%, the most since May 2020. The inflationary shock of tensions in Europe is thus placing the Federal Reserve in a tricky situation. All eyes are on US CPI next week, where headline growth is expected at 7.9% y/y for February, up from 7.5% prior. All eyes will also be on the European Central Bank for its March monetary policy announcement. Odds of tightening have been dramatically pulled back. However, much like the Fed, the ECB is facing a rising inflationary environment, with very little room to ease. China will also release inflationary figures. What else is in store for markets this week? （From DailyFx）

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK: AUD/JPY rates are climbing through symmetrical triangle resistance, but still remain below the ascending trendline from the March 2020 and August 2021 lows. Similarly, AUD/USD rates are attempting to breakout above bullish falling wedge resistance. According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, both AUD/JPY and AUD/USD rates have mixed biases in the near-term. AUD WEATHERS VOLATILITY IN RISK ASSETS Volatility continues to wreak havoc across asset classes as global financial markets digest the European Union’s and United States’ aggressive sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. But with a busy economic calendar in the days ahead, FX markets are also calibrating their focus on discriminate event risk; the Australian Dollar is readying for the March Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia is increasingly likely to raise interest rates in the first half of the year after several months of better than expected economic data. The current Australian unemployment rate is 4.2%, already-matching the RBA’s 2022 year-end forecast. But there is a potential hurdle that is delaying action by the RBA sooner: Australian federal elections have to be held by May at the latest. Once the elections pass, the RBA will be freer to act. Hawkish commentary by the RBA – instead of a rate hike – is likely to keep the Australian Dollar supported. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

RUSSIAN RUBLE OUTLOOK: The response by the European Union and the United States to the Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated dramatically over the weekend. Beyond limiting some Russian banks’ access to SWIFT, the freeze of assets held by the Central Bank of Russia is far more impactful. A currency crisis has begun for the Russian Ruble. FINANCIAL NUCLEAR WAR The Russian invasion of Ukraine this week was initially met with platitudes and handwringing that has so often defined the European Union’s and United States’ (“the West”) response to crises in recent years. At first glance, a Russian economy (1) with a debt-to-GDP ratio around 18%, (2) over 80% of government-issued debt denominated in Russian Rubles, and (3) high energy prices having filled Russia’s coffers over the past year, seemed like it would be able to weather any economic or financial repercussions – so long as the invasion of Ukraine proved short-lived. But as the Ukrainian army and population have mustered a formidable resistance, the European Union’s and United States’ response evolved dramatically. On Saturday, the West announced that some Russian financial institutions would be cut off from SWIFT, the global messaging platform that allows banks to communicate and send funds securely to one another. Japan joined the West on Sunday in such an effort. Russian companies will have a difficult, if not impossible, time importing and exporting goods and services moving forward. Yet removing Russian access to SWIFT is incomparable to the other effort taken by the European Union and the United States: freezing the Russian central bank’s assets. The Central Bank of Russia (“CBR”) has roughly $630 billion in foreign reserves, most of which are now inaccessible. The immediate effect is that the CBR will not be able to sell foreign currencies (e.g. the Euro) to prop up the value of the Ruble, which was already under a great deal of pressure – falling to all-time lows – after Russia invaded Ukraine. There’s really no other way to put it: the decision by the West to limit Russian banks’ access to SWIFT and to freeze the assets of the Central Bank of Russia is equivalent to dropping a financial nuclear bomb on the Russian economy. While one of the immediate knock-on effects could be a potential reduction in Europe’s access to energy supplies – uncertain, considering there seems to be a carveout in the SWIFT efforts so that payments can still flow for oil and gas – the other is that the Russian economy will almost certainly descend into a sharp recession. NO LIFELINES LEFT The Russian economy is now isolated globally, with only China serving as a potential lifeline. But even then, the Chinese government has prohibited state banks from financing purchases of Russian commodities, a sign that China itself is not looking favorably at recent developments. EUR/RUB [ORANGE] & USD/RUB[BLUE] TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: WEEKLY PRICE CHART (FEBRUARY 2012 TO FEBRUARY 2022) (CHART 2) Russia Set for Currency Crisis as EU, US Limit Access to SWIFT, Freeze CBR Assets Reports have emerged over the weekend that, in response to the West’s sanctions, bank runs have begun in Russia (as expected). Queues at banks and ATMs are widely reported in both traditional and social media, with Russian citizens no longer able to obtain foreign currencies. Russia’s Tinkoff Bank, the world’s largest digital bank and Russia’s second largest credit card issuer, was quoting EUR/RUB at 163.00 and USD/RUB at 153.00-171.00 – that’s effectively a 100% increase from where the market closed on Friday. Now unable to import or export goods and services thanks to the SWIFT sanctions, unable to sell foreign currency reserves thanks to the CBR asset freeze, and a Russian economy ringfenced from the global financial system, a currency crisis has emerged for Russia. Capital controls are just around the corner, as are likely interest rate hikes by the CBR to try and stabilize the Russian Ruble – but neither of those will prove effective so long as Russia presses foward with its invasion of Ukraine. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR THE US DOLLAR: NEUTRAL But for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US Dollar’s fundamental moorings appear to be less supportive. The 2s5s10s butterfly has receded to its narrowest spread since October 2021, a sign that the US Treasury yield curve has become less supportive of the US Dollar. According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, the US Dollar has a mixed bias heading into the last week of February. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist